How Measurable is Success? Behavioural Science in the Computer Age

The general public wants “success” or “failure” defined in black or white terms.

A prime requisite for evaluating “success” is clearly defined and ascertainable goal, aim or design. Achievement would constitute “success”.

Lack of yardsticks

Correction needs basic scientific research and universally acceptable and applicable standards.

Edward W. Soden warns the rehabilitation of alcoholics has no definite yardstick by which success can be measured.

Edward M. Taylor and Alexander W. McEachern wonder how effective probation is, so long as delinquency is described neither accurately nor in terms of what is done about it, it remains impossible to evaluate the success of probation services in regard to any particular type of delinquency.

Charles L. Newman urges correctional treatment must be more than trial-and-error process, that in corrections, as in law-enforcement, are not allowed errors.

Sophia M. Robinson sums up the predicament

There is no agreement on the definition of the disease
No definitive description of the characteristics of those who are vulnerable
No precise methods
No agreed-upon criteria for determining the relative success of the cure

Meaningful criteria

We need to develop a clear and meaningful criteria for determining “success” or “failure” in correction, and disseminate these standards widely.

The general public uses seemingly clear-cut criterion for rehabilitating offenders, the effort is a “failure” if the offender has reoffended, and a “success” if he has not. A more practical criteria must be devised to evaluate “progress”.

We can outline a general behavioural equation without real value since we lack a practical means to measure the factors involved.

The Algebra correction

Even with these equation there will be many factors difficult measure such as genetic predisposition, how the mother context influences the child, what are the postnatal factors…

Until we can exactly define and determine mensurable values to replace these symbols in the equation, it remains entirely unusable.

Conclusion

Eventually we’ll be able to develop and utilise practical behavioural equations that yield reliable predictions and offer concrete measurements in “black or white” terms.

In the not too distant future, our courts may look to the computer rather than to the probation officer. The defendant may undergo a series of clinical tests and measurements and the results will be fed into a machine to deliver findings. There will still be need for a live probation, parole, and correctional offices to implement and carry out the prescribed treatment plan.

In the interim, perhaps we might best concentrate on demonstrating whatever “progress” we can show.